Forex Technical Major Pairs Analysis | July 10, 2026
The U.S. Dollar Index came under heavy selling pressure during today's session before finding buyers at the 100.67 floor, a level we have been flagging as structurally critical for the greenback's near-term trajectory.
Rebecca Jennings·updated July 10, 2026
Dollar Complex and European Cables
EUR/USD attempted an early bullish extension but ran into stiff overhead supply, dragging the pair back beneath its opening baseline. We still frame the near-term tape as a corrective bullish phase with the 1.1500 handle representing the primary upside objective. Should sellers reclaim full control and reassert the dominant downtrend, the market is positioned to test the 1.1300–1.1360 demand pocket, a zone we would watch closely for structural breakdowns. GBP/USD, meanwhile, tapped the 1.3450 horizontal resistance and immediately reversed, with the daily candle shaping up as a potential bearish pin bar, a textbook signature of supply dominance at local highs. A sustained daily close beneath the dynamic SMA 200 would hand the bears the technical confirmation they need for a structural continuation lower.
Yen Cross and Antipodean Recovery
USD/JPY staged an aggressive sell-off, erasing the bulk of this week's hard-earned gains in a single session. Yet the price action remains strictly contained within the range of the preceding bearish candle, which keeps the near-term directional bias neutral until a decisive range breakout materializes. We expect trend-followers to sit on their hands until either a structural breakdown or a clean bullish reversal signal prints. On the opposite side of the spectrum, AUD/USD continues to extend its bullish recovery, with buyers steadily building toward the psychologically important 0.7000 figure. The pace suggests measured accumulation rather than euphoria, and we will be watching price reactions between the daily SMA 200 and the 0.7000 ceiling for confirmation of follow-through.
What We Are Watching From Here
The defining theme running across today's tape is compression: the dollar defending a well-defined floor, the European majors capped by overhead resistance, and the yen trapped inside an unresolved range. For our positioning, the levels that matter are clustered and clean. DXY needs to hold 100.67 to keep the consolidation thesis intact; a break below opens the door to accelerated dollar weakness. EUR/USD bears need a drive into 1.1300–1.1360 to confirm downside conviction, while bulls require a daily close above 1.1500. GBP/USD's pin bar at 1.3450 is the first actionable signal, with SMA 200 as the confirmation trigger. USD/JPY remains a range trade until the boundary breaks, and AUD/USD's path to 0.7000 is the cleanest directional expression on the board, provided the SMA 200 continues to act as a rising floor. Until the macro tape delivers a fresh catalyst, we expect this localized churn to persist.