Technical Analysis of Major Currency Pairs After Fed Policy Shift

A clean break and close below the 100.00 psychological level on the DXY would mark a medium-term structural shift in the dollar trend and force a recalibration of positioning across the G10 complex. We are watching the remainder of this week for evidence that the bearish impulse has staying power rather than the kind of fleeting liquidation that fades back into range.

Dollar softness reframes the European and commodity pairs

EUR/USD has been the cleanest beneficiary. As the report notes, the pair pushed decisively above 1.1500 and printed a higher swing high beyond the mid-July top — the first technical confirmation that price is transitioning out of its multi-month consolidation. With bullish momentum in control, the immediate upside reference sits at 1.1580, followed by the daily SMA 200 above it, and the durability of this leg will be defined by how price responds on first approach.

GBP/USD has executed an equally telling breakout, clearing both the daily SMA 200 and the 1.3450 resistance level in the same session. A higher swing low is now locked in, which materially raises the probability of a continuation toward a fresh higher swing high. For us, the operative level is whether 1.3450 holds on any retest; a failure there would invalidate the structural shift and trap late longs.

JPY intervention signal and the AUD breakout

USD/JPY's behavior may be the most informative single print of the day. The pair sliced through its long-standing ascending trend line and plunged to the daily SMA 200 — a move whose scale, as FXDailyReport.Com highlights, is consistent with another Bank of Japan intervention layered onto the dollar's broader weakness. If these lower levels hold without an immediate snapback, the prevailing uptrend is effectively over, and our base case shifts toward a structurally lower JPY even as short-term volatility remains extreme.

AUD/USD has finally broken decisively above the 0.7000 psychological barrier with momentum behind it. A sustained hold above this level — even a shallow consolidation — would confirm the initiation of a new bullish leg and open the way for a longer-term revaluation against a weakening greenback.

The levels we are tracking into the coming sessions: DXY at 100.00, EUR/USD at 1.1580 and the daily SMA 200, GBP/USD at 1.3450 on any retest, USD/JPY acceptance below the daily SMA 200, and AUD/USD at 0.7000. The parallel framing from FOREX.com — a note titled "US Dollar Technical Forecast: DXY Breakout Failure Threatens the Yearly Uptrend" — converges with the same conclusion we are drawing from the price action itself: the dollar's yearly uptrend is now the story at risk.