Forex Seasonality – July 2026: Will See a Recovery in EUR/USD and GBP/USD?

Dollar softness meets a still-unfinished euro rebound

The euro’s recovery has been real, but not yet decisive. According to MQL5, EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1435, up from 1.1385 a week earlier, after first falling to 1.1324 and then reclaiming the 1.1400 area. The move followed a weaker US dollar after the soft labour-market report, with euro, bitcoin and gold all recovering from recent lows.

We should treat that cross-asset response as important. A softer dollar alongside firmer gold and bitcoin suggests the market has moved away from pricing a straightforward hawkish US rates path, at least temporarily. Lower expectations for additional US rate increases narrow the dollar’s rate advantage, and that is the cleanest macro channel behind the EUR/USD bounce.

But the chart has not yet delivered confirmation of a broader reversal. MQL5 still describes EUR/USD as neutral with a moderately bearish bias while it trades below 1.1500. The first resistance band is 1.1475-1.1500, followed by 1.1590-1.1620 and 1.1660-1.1685. Support is noted at 1.1400-1.1415, then 1.1325-1.1350, 1.1185-1.1210, 1.1100 and 1.1065.

That gives us a practical framework: above 1.1500, the euro recovery starts to look less like a short-covering move and more like a repricing of dollar-rate risk; below that zone, the rebound remains vulnerable to renewed liquidity absorption into the dollar.

Seasonality is the headline; data remains the trigger

FOREX.com’s seasonal framing puts July 2026 recovery potential for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on the table, but the available source detail does not provide confirmed GBP/USD levels or a sterling-specific setup. That matters. We can acknowledge the seasonal question, but we should not overstate a pound recovery without supporting price action or macro detail.

For now, the cleaner evidence sits in the dollar leg. MQL5 points to the weak US labour-market report as the catalyst that reduced expectations of further US rate increases. It also notes that Eurozone inflation slowed to 2.8%, adding a European macro input that complicates the euro side of the equation. A softer US rate path can support EUR/USD, but slower Eurozone inflation may limit how aggressively markets are willing to price European rate resilience.

There is also a timing issue in the broader news flow. Moomoo reported that the dollar rose to the upper half of the 162 yen range at 9:00 a.m. on July 1, supported by stronger-than-expected US labour-market data. MQL5 later described the week as marked by a weaker dollar after a weak US labour-market report. The sequence underlines why we should avoid anchoring to one release or one session. The dollar has been trading as a data-dependent currency, not as a one-way macro story.

What we monitor into the next dollar test

The next test is whether the labour slowdown looks isolated or persistent. MQL5 flags the final US Services PMI and ISM Services Index on July 6, the June FOMC minutes on July 8, and US initial jobless claims and existing home sales on July 9. Germany’s CPI data on July 10 is also highlighted, given Germany’s role as the leading Eurozone economy.

For EUR/USD, the working levels are clear. The 1.1475-1.1500 resistance zone is the immediate barrier; a move through it would ease pressure on the euro and strengthen the recovery argument. Failure there keeps the pair in a neutral-to-moderately-bearish structure, especially if price slips back through 1.1400-1.1415.

For GBP/USD, the confirmed evidence only supports the broader July recovery question, not a detailed sterling call. We would therefore align pound exposure with the same dollar-data filter: if US services, FOMC minutes and labour indicators reinforce softer rate expectations, the dollar leg can support recovery attempts across major pairs; if they reverse that message, seasonal arguments will carry less weight than renewed US yield support.